Risk Management for Jira with Risk Radar – Assess Risks in Issues Using a Smart Formula
Hi Atlassian Community!
I want to share Risk Radar, a Jira Cloud app I recently created to help teams assess the risks of issues in Jira. In this post, I’ll explain how the formula calculates the risk value for Jira issues.
Why Risk Radar?
The goal was to develop a straightforward tool that provides a clear risk indicator based on three key parameters:
🔹 Probability of Failure – How likely is it that the task will encounter problems?
🔹 Impact on the Project – What will be the impact on the project if the problem occurs?
🔹 Complexity of Resolution – How difficult will it be to resolve the problem if it arises?
Each parameter is rated on a scale of Low (1), Medium (2), or High (3), and the app calculates a final risk score using a weighted formula.
How the Risk Calculation Works
The formula used in Risk Radar is designed to reflect real-world scenarios and provide actionable insights.
Base Formula: 📌 Risk = (Probability × 1.5) + (Impact × 1.2) + (Complexity × 1)
Adjustment Factors:
✔️ If Complexity = Low, the risk score is reduced by 15% (multiplied by 0.85).
✔️ If Impact = High and Complexity ≠ Low, the risk score is increased by 15% (multiplied by 1.15).
Normalization:
The final score is normalized to a range of 1 to 10.
Example Calculation Let’s say we have the following values:
✅ Probability = High (3)
✅ Impact = Medium (2)
✅ Complexity = Low (1)
Step 1: Calculate the Base Risk Score
📌 Risk = (3 × 1.5) + (2 × 1.2) + (1 × 1)
📌 Risk = 4.5 + 2.4 + 1 = 7.9
Step 2: Apply Adjustments (since Complexity = Low)
📌 Risk = 7.9 × 0.85 = 6.7
📢 Final Risk Score: 6.7 (High Risk)
Why This Formula?
The formula prioritizes Probability and Impact, as these factors have the most significant influence on risk. Complexity is also considered but carries less weight, since a complex task doesn’t always equate to high risk—especially if the probability and impact are low.
The result is a clear, actionable risk score:
🟢 Low Risk (1–3.3): Proceed as planned.
🟡 Medium Risk (3.4–6.8): Monitor the task closely.
🔴 High Risk (6.9–10): Take additional precautions.
Questions for the Community
While the current formula works well for the main use case, I’d love to hear your thoughts:
💡 Are the current multipliers reasonable?
💡 How do you assess risk in your Jira workflow?
💡 Are there any edge cases or scenarios where this approach might fall short?
Your feedback and suggestions would be invaluable in refining Risk Radar to better serve the needs of Jira users. Let’s discuss! 🚀
