Explain slope change in version report

[luke_majewski]

We have a question from management on how to understand something specific in the version report.  Sometimes the slope of the line changes past the "today" mark.  Please see the attached image.  Basically, how do you explain that the slope of the line "improves" our outlook?  I would think that since the left half of the graph (historical data) has a specific velocity (slope) that velocity would continue when making the forecast on version completion date.

version_report.png

Thank you!

version_report.png

[Dmytro]

I've found an excellent explanation here: https://www.alfresco.com/blogs/developer/2015/07/29/inside-the-jira-version-report/

[David Leal]

@Dmitry Klevakin the link does not work

[rmcdow]

@David Leal , I found this link has moved to here: https://community.alfresco.com/community/ecm/blog/2015/07/29/inside-the-jira-version-report

[Aaron Lawrence]

Doesn't this unexplained/magically varying velocity totally discredit the JIRA version report? I never use it except as an interesting picture. It's like Atlassian is just telling us to trust them blindly. 

[Jim Constant]

I really wish someone at Atlassian would improve the page you linked to, @RZO because I'm having a hard time explaining to management why the my team's average velocity is about 25 yet the Version Report and the Release Burndown are using a velocity of about 51 to project completion dates. It's higher because it's including scope changes as if we expect the rate of scope change to continue for the remainder of the project. They should provide a clear explanation of how the velocity is calculated instead of just saying it's different from the team's velocity. Are you out there Atlassian? I've posted this question at Atlassian Answers and I've heard nothing but crickets.

[Thom Franklin]

Please vote for the fix at GHS-11735 Closing and Reopening Estimates Issues Incorrectly Modifies Velocity in Version Report

Meanwhile, I am unclear whether that defect is the only cause of the slope change.

For a workaround:

1.  Figure out what your current velocity is, how many weeks have gone by, and how many remain. 
2. Then use that data in excel to figure out the actual end date.   
3. Make a new issue in the version called "Extra Points to Make Version Chart Work - DO NOT CLOSE"
4. Then add the points needed to make the chart slope correct even though it increases the scope.
5. Obviously, if you want to get rid of the issue, do not close it because of the above bug.  My hunch is that deleting it will work.

[Eldon Wong]

I've been playing around with this more and found out that this happens whenever you re-open a closed story.  When you re-open, JIRA does not subtract those story points from your velocity.  When you close the story again, the story points for that story gets added again to your velocity.  If you constantly repeat this, you can eventually make the Predicted Completion Date next week.  (Don't tell management this trick.  )

[RZO]

We have the same question here. For some teams we observe the same, for some not. It would be helpful to have a more detailed explanation of the predicted completion date in https://confluence.atlassian.com/display/AGILE/Viewing+the+Version+Report

[Eldon Wong]

We have the same question. One of our teams shows this inflection point. The slope of the line changed such that it lined up with our Release Date, so we thought it was the velocity we needed to be at in order to be done in time. However, I tested by changing the release date, and the line did not change.